A discrete event simulation to evaluate the cost effectiveness of germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing in UK women with ovarian cancer

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 (collectively termed ‘BRCA’) testing in women with epithelial ovarian cancer, and testing for the relevant mutation in first and second degree relatives of BRCA mutation-positive individuals, compared with no testing. Female BRCA mutation-positive relatives of ovarian cancer patients could undergo risk-reducing mastectomy and/or bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. Methods: A discrete event simulation model was developed that included the risks of breast and ovarian cancer, the costs, utilities and effects of risk-reducing surgery on cancer rates, and the costs, utilities and mortality rates associated with cancer. Results: BRCA testing all women with epithelial ovarian cancer each year is cost-effective at a UK willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY compared with no testing, with an ICER of £4,339/QALY. The result was primarily driven by fewer cases of breast (142) and ovarian (141) cancer and associated reductions in mortality (77 fewer deaths) in relatives over the subsequent 50 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust to variations in the input parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of germline BRCA mutation testing being cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000/QALY was 99.9%. Conclusions: Implementing germline BRCA testing in all ovarian cancer patients would be cost-effective in the UK. The consequent reduction of future cases of breast and ovarian cancer in relatives of mutationpositive individuals would ease the burden of cancer treatments in subsequent years and result in significantly better outcomes and reduced mortality rates for these individuals. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/060418 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Jun. 23, 2016;